How To Respond to a Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Bleed Putin Dry
For a few months, Russia has been building up hundreds of thousands troops on the Russo-Ukrainian borders. The US has shared intelligence with European allies that Russia is planning for a possible full-scale invasion, as early as next year. An invasion of Ukraine should be met with a strong and swift response by the West. The West should impose severe consequences on Russia, and show to the world that larger countries cannot bully smaller countries without large consequences. It is imperative to show that the NATO alliance is still strong, and will respond to any Russian aggression. Here is a list of steps the West should take if Russia invades Ukraine.
Grant NATO membership to all other countries that desire it.
Moscow believes that it has the right to veto any NATO expansion. Putin has justified his malign actions in Ukraine as a necessary way to prevent expansion of Ukraine to NATO. NATO must prove that this is false. Georgia has already been promised eventual membership, and should be immediately granted membership. Georgia wants to join NATO, and is just waiting for NATO members to let them join. Moldova, Finland, and Sweden may also be inclined to join after a Russian invasion. Though public support for joining NATO remains low in Finland and Sweden, public support did increase after Russia’s illegal seizure of Crimea, and may increase to a majority after a Russian invasion. Moldova recently elected a pro-European President-with a parliamentary majority-that may also be inclined to join NATO if Russia invades Ukraine. This time, NATO should cut the bureaucracy and immediately admit these countries as members, with no delay. This will make sure Russia does not have any time to derail and stop these countries from joining NATO. With the addition of more member states, the West will clearly show Russia that they cannot veto NATO enlargement. They will show that aggression against Ukraine will only achieve the opposite of what they want-that is, a stop to NATO expansion.
Put massive Sanctions on Russia, and reduce dependence on Russian gas
Biden already has committed to massive sanctions, so there isn’t much to be said here. One particularly effective tool would be to freeze the assets of oligarchs personally close to Putin, many of which hold assets in Western banks. This would particularly harm Putin personally. Additionally, Europe should reduce their reliance on Russian gas and instead invest in Wind, Solar, and Nuclear (as the rest of the world should too). Germany has probably committed to ending Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine. During this transition, Europe should buy gas from other countries, instead of Russia. This will undermine and reduce Russian leverage against Europe and the West.
Revise the Montreux Convention to allow for NATO to have a stronger presence in the Black Sea.
The Montreux convention on the Law of the Sea, signed in 1936, significantly impedes NATO's ability to build up a large presence in the Black Sea. Non-Black Sea powers have significant restrictions on the size, and length of stay of naval vessels in the Black Sea. In response to an invasion, NATO countries should pull out of Montreux and allow for large warships to enter the Black Sea. This will give NATO significant leverage over Russia, and enable NATO to give larger intelligence support to Ukraine. Having large warships and Aircraft carriers in what has been described as Russia’s “backyard”, or “soft underbelly”, will make Russia think twice about escalating the situation further. Despite the worsening relationship between Turkey and the rest of NATO, Turkey has shown solidarity with Ukraine, and Erdogan particularly has questioned the Montreux convention.
Establish a Permanent US and NATO military presence in Eastern Europe
The Us military presence in Europe is mainly concentrated in Germany, Italy, and the UK. After the 2014 annexation of Crimea, NATO has deployed small, rotational, “trip-wire” battalions in Eastern Europe. If Russia should invade Ukraine, the US and NATO must put permanent military presence in Eastern Europe-the troop level should rival the amount of troops currently stationed in the UK, Italy, and Germany. If Russia invades Ukraine, NATO must permanently reinforce it’s Eastern flank to protect against Russian aggression. This will make it clear to Putin that invading sovereign countries will only make his security situation worse. The US has already taken the important first step of putting 8,500 troops on heightened alert.
Support and Fund the Inevitable Ukrainian Insurgency-also Syrian Rebels
Though Russia may be able to quickly defeat the regular Ukrainian army, it will inevitably find itself fighting a counter-insurgency campaign. The Us should back the Ukrainian insurgency with everything it needs-Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, grenades, machine guns, etc. The US is already considering doing this. Making Russia fight a long, costly, and bloody counter-insurgency will increase Russian casualties, making Putin’s domestic popularity plunge. Ukraine’s population is well-fit for an insurgency-⅓ of the population is willing to put up armed resistance. The US should also step up support for Syrian rebels with Anti-Aircraft missiles-something the US has not done yet. The US should strengthen moderate factions of the opposition by increasing its presence across Rebel and Kurdish held territory across Syria. Perhaps, if Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, it will take its eyes off Syria. And then, finally we can remove Bashar Al-Assad-a horrible “butcher”-from power.